H052

How did paying for rat tails give Hanoi more rats?

In 1902, French colonial officials in Hanoi offered a bounty for every rat tail. The tails poured in. The rats didn't go away.

The reward
1 cent
per rat tail turned in
At the peak
20,000+
tails collected in a single day, June 1902
What officials then saw
tailless rats
alive in the streets, plus rat farms outside town

A reward that grew the problem

The bounty paid for tails, not for fewer rats

Officials pay 1 cent per rat tailto fight rats in the new sewers Hunters cut off the tailsand let the rats go to breed Rat farms appearoutside the city More rats than beforeand more tails to sell The rewardfed the problem

When you pay for a measure of a problem, people can produce the measure instead of solving the problem. The city wanted fewer rats; it paid for tails. Cutting off a tail and releasing the rat to breed earned the reward and kept the supply going. Some residents went further and raised rats. The program was dropped, and plague reached Hanoi in 1903.

Economists call this a perverse incentive, and it shows up wherever a reward is tied to something easy to count: lines of code written, tickets closed, arrests made, test scores raised. Before rewarding a number, ask what the cheapest way to raise that number would be.

Try it somewhere else

A company pays programmers a bonus for every bug they find and fix in their own code.

What might happen to the number of bugs they write?

The "cobra effect" story

The better-known version of this idea is the "cobra effect": British officials in colonial Delhi supposedly paid for dead cobras, people bred cobras for the bounty, and when the bounty ended the breeders released them, leaving more cobras than before. It is widely repeated, but historians have found little documentation for it. The Hanoi rat bounty is the documented case, recorded in French colonial archives and studied by historian Michael Vann.

Related exhibits

Sources: Michael G. Vann, "Of Rats, Rice, and Race: The Great Hanoi Rat Massacre, an Episode in French Colonial History," French Colonial History, 2003; Michael G. Vann and Liz Clarke, The Great Hanoi Rat Hunt (Oxford University Press, 2018). Cobra-effect term: Horst Siebert, Der Kobra-Effekt (2001).